Sunday, January 27, 2013

COMMENTS - 2013/01/27




WEEKLY BLOG COMMENTS – No. 48
DATES: 2013/01/20– 2013/01/27
ANALYST: Domingo Trassens

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THEME: United States


Subject: In her column “Opinion”, the columnist Peggy Noonan comments two lessons on how conservatives and Republicans might approach their future, and a look at the meaning of Barack Obama
My Comment: Barack Obama is not a Jimmy Carter. He likes to play with drones and kill enemies in distance, but he is a vulnerable foe on the ground. He has a serious Achilles’ heel. He is not a good negotiator and he will be wounded in the fight against Republicans. Lesson one for President Obama: Learn to negotiate if you want to end your last four years healthy. (2013/01/25)


Subject: Journalist Jessica Holzer explains Obama taps ex-prosecutor Mary Jo White, portending an increased policing of Wall Street.
My Comment: The information available shows that Mary Jo White, ex-prosecutor and current SEC nominee, has strong background as a “cop” of Wall Street and prosecuting terrorists.

We understand that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is a federal agency which hold primary responsibility for enforcing the federal securities laws and regulating the securities industry, but will Ms. White be flexible enough to fight against crime without create panic through the aisles of Wall Street? Sometimes, the “cops” only see criminals. (2013/01/25)


Subject: Journalists Caroline Porter and Joe Barrett comment about the bad weather across the country with stories from Embarrass, Minn., where the wind chill has hit 40 to 50 below zero this week, and other locations where the coldest temperature created problems for the inhabitants.
My Comment: Winter is winter: cold wind, snow, foggy mornings, short days... We cannot expect something different. (2013/01/24)


Subject: Journalists Siobhan Gorman and Jay Solomon explain Secretary of State Hillary Clinton defended the Obama administration's handling of the September terrorist attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya in congressional hearings before Senate and House committees.
My Comment: The hearing of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton before Senate and House committees about the attack on the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi, Libya was a new “war” of words that didn’t finish with a real clarification of the triggers and the sequence of events. Her testimony was tense and emotional, but she didn’t answer crucial questions. Personally, I think the members of Congress have the right and obligation to make deep questions and the Secretary of State has to have the patience to answer step by step including the aggressive interrogation. From my humble point of view, probably Ms. Clinton damaged her political future. (2013/01/24) 2 Recommendations


Subject: Journalist Carol E. Lee writes a complete coverage of the presidential inauguration as President Barack Obama is publicly sworn-in to begin his second term. This story includes opinions of different political leaders about President Obama’s speech and his agenda for the second term.
My Comment: Today everybody talks about the main actor of the scene: President Barack Obama. Personally, I would like to underline the words of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell related to Inauguration Day.

Mitch McConnell said: “The president’s second term represents a fresh start when it comes to dealing with the great challenges of our day…Republicans are eager to work with the president on achieving this common goal, and we firmly believe that divided government provides the perfect opportunity to do so.”

Myself I am strong believer on the principles of democracy. I believe in the opportunity that different voices, different minds can work together to achieve common goals for the best for the people, for the best for the nations. (2013/01/22) 2 Recommendations


Subject: Journalist Peter Nicholas explains that when Joe Biden took the oath marking the start of his second term as vice president, some observers said that he may be thinking of a promotion four years down the road.
My Comment: From my perspective, the speculations about the 2016 presidential campaign from the side of the Democrats are not appropriate in this moment. Last November they won the election. Now they have to perform their current obligation: govern. It is insane that in the start of a new term, they are thinking again about political campaigns. (2013/01/21) 3 Recommendations


Subject: Journalist Peter Nicholas says “President Barack Obama took the oath of office Sunday in a private ceremony at the White House, opening a second term in which he will attempt to push tighter gun controls and an immigration overhaul through a divided government, while confronting Iran's nuclear ambitions and other challenges overseas.”
My Comment: The oath ceremony is something formal. The important moves come next. (2013/01/20) 2 Recommendations


Subject: Journalists Julian E. Barnes and Drew Hinshaw write the British and U.S. defense leaders vowed to go after the perpetrators of the Algerian terrorist attacks as well as the Islamist militants fighting in Mali.
My Comment: The statement of U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta: “Just as we cannot accept terrorist attacks against our cities, we cannot accept attacks against our citizens and our interests abroad” doesn’t solve the problem. The fact is that when a country like Algeria refuses the foreign cooperation, their mistakes go against our people and interests, but we are in their hands. (2013/01/20)


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THEME: Europe


Subject: This story explains that in the last 2012 quarter, the U.K. economy showed negative symptoms.
My Comment: This story titled “U.K. Economy Shrinks” says: “The U.K. economy shrank in the final quarter of 2012, leaving Britain at risk of entering its third recession since 2008.”

We have to add that it looks like the London Olympic Games were not enough “economic engine” to move forward the country through all of 2012.

Bad news after all the efforts the British crown made to start the Games with the “Queen” jumping from a parachute! (2013/01/25) 2 Recommendations


Subject: Journalists Ainsley Thomson and Jason Douglas explain the United Kingdom economy shrank in the final quarter of 2012, “leaving Britain at the risk of entering its third recession since 2008.” They also talk about the speech Primer Minister David Cameron at the World Economic Forum (Davos, Switzerland) where he showed criticism against the current EU agenda and the firm resolution of European leaders like German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
My Comment: U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron will not put Europe on the feet of the former British Empire. His attitude shows an arrogance that is not appropriate to these circumstances. He cannot climb to the top of the mast and give orders to the others, while he never accepts to go down and rows like everyone else. (2013/01/23) 1 Recommendation


Subject: Journalists David Román and Christopher Bjork comment that “Spain's central bank said a recession in the euro zone's fourth-largest economy deepened slightly in the final quarter of last year, but it said austerity cuts are bringing the country's runaway budget deficit under control.”
My Comment: The problem is the recession hits first the people without permanent jobs or low income and the retirees. And the information from Spain doesn’t show signs of economic improvement. The landscape is gloomy despite the initiatives of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy. (2013/01/23)


Subject: Journalist Alex Brittain writes that leaders from several European governments bridled at U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron's call for major changes for the European Union.
My Comment: The problem is that U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron doesn’t want to accept the rules of the community.

However, the experience of the first 10 years of euro-zone showed that in the European Union under a flexible system, everybody was managing its obligations with others without responsibility and sometimes against their own national interests due to the corruption of their leaders. The best samples were the crisis generated by
Ireland, Portugal, Greece, Spain, Italy

The “laissez-faire” economic system doesn't work in a community where everybody only thinks in the "dolce vita".

If the
United Kingdom doesn’t want to work in community, it has to go out of the EU. . (2013/01/23) 4 Recommendations



Subject: Journalists David Gauthier-Villars and Adam Entous say France is upset because the US is giving limited support for the war it is waging in Mali against al Qaeda militants
My Comment: The Malian operation was started by France apparently without a clear consensus from other countries. In these circumstances, I don’t believe US has any formal obligations with the French government, only the compromises inherent to a long friendship. (2013/01/21) 2 Recommendations


Subject: Journalist William Boston writes German Chancellor Angela Merkel's bid for a third term in office suffered a blow when left-leaning opposition parties defeated a coalition of her Christian Democrats and Free Democrats with a razor-thin one-seat majority in an election in the state of Lower Saxony.
My Comment: The results of the election in the state of Lower Saxony anticipate a tough year in German politics during 2013. The Christian Democrats really were the winners but through the system of coalition the Social Democrats together with the Greens added more votes and they took control of the state.

Till the general election of September, we will see a hard fight between Angela Merkel – current Chancellor - and Peer Steinbrück from SPD with implications in the international politics.

I believe two crucial topics are the European Union’s stabilization and the relationships US-Germany. In the European environment there are also 3 key factors: the fluctuation of the euro, the “facto” leadership between
Germany and France and the pending definitions about the UK’s future inside or outside the EU.

Despite all the hurdles that Angela Merkel had to jump during the last two years, her position continues strong. Across
2012, in different moments, the political observers thought the “end” for Ms. Merkel had arrived, but she survived in good conditions. Her “chronic headache” is the poor performance of the FPD – partner of her coalition - during the last few years. (2013/01/21)


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THEME: The World: Middle East, Asia, Africa


Subject: Bill Gates posts a letter in Wall Street Journal with comments about his participation at the 2013 World Economic Forum, in Davos.
My Comment: I recognize that Bill Gates is a controversial personality, but I have to applaud his campaign to fix health and education problems around the world. From Davos, Switzerland, at the World Economic Forum, the co-founder of Microsoft affirmed that progress in every project has to be measured in the right way. Talking about the improvement of the health and education across the world he said: “Following the path of the steam engine long ago, thanks to measurement, progress isn't "doomed to be rare and erratic." We can, in fact, make it commonplace.” Personally, I agree with his suggestion. (2013/01/27) 3 Recommendations


Subject: Wall Street Journal publishes a note written by ASSOCIATED PRESS from Davos, Switzerland, at the World Economic Forum, where the Algeria's foreign minister acknowledged the mistakes of the security forces of his country during the hostage crisis at the Saharan gas plant.
My Comment: Now at least the “mea culpa” came. The Algerian foreign minister acknowledged that the security forces made serious mistakes in the hostage crisis at the Saharan gas plant in which many foreign workers were killed by the military strikes. Despite it is late for the dead hostages, we hope that in the future, Algeria accepts international assistance from experts in terrorism. (2013/01/27)


Subject: Journalists Adam Entous, Julian E. Barnes and Drew Hinshaw comment France's attack on Islamic extremists in Mali generated “strains in the Western world's security strategy”.
My Comment: I think a military operation like the attack on the Malian rebels requires a previous agreement among the countries that will lead and support the war with troops and other resources including transportation and fuel. It is not like a dinner among friends where after the food everybody puts some money on the table and together they share the costs. (2013/01/24) 4 Recommendations


Subject: Journalists Yaroslav Trofimov and Maria Abi-Habib write about a United Nations report related to the torture practice at Afghan police and intelligence-service jails.
My Comment: This story says that the Mr. Karzai's spokesman affirms that: “The Afghan government is not implicated in crimes against detainees, and the torture and abuse of detainees is certainly not our policy." But the fact is the prisoners are tortured and the government doesn’t want to assume responsibilities like in the case of corruption. With this kind of people it is impossible to achieve something serious. (2013/01/21)


Subject: Journalists David Gauthier-Villars and Cassell Bryan-Low write the casualty count at the four-day crisis in the Sahara was higher than previous expectations.
My Comment: Sunday January 20 evening: till now nothing is really clear about the Algerian gas station attack. Some European sources say that it is possible the death toll climbs to more than 80. (2013/01/20) 

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THEME: Latin America


Subject: Journalists José de Córdoba and Gabriele Parussini write Mexico's Supreme Court freed a Frenchwoman who had been found guilty of kidnapping and jailed since 2005, arguing that her case was plagued by police abuse.
My Comment: The drama of the French citizen Florence Cassez jailed since 2005 in a Mexican prison for a dubious case had a sudden end due to the order of the Supreme Court of that country to free her. Nevertheless the freedom of this woman will not change the attitude of a corrupt police apparatus that frequently commits abuses that are not admissible in countries that claim themselves democratic and with Christian principles. (2013/01/24)

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THEME: Economy, Business and Technology


Subject: This article comments on IBM’s financial results related to its fourth 2012 quarter.
My Comment: Today IBM is one of the most complicated technology companies to evaluate the real performance of its business because it doesn’t sell packages of software or machines for units. It sells very complex solutions that include software, hardware, services and consulting for big corporations, government and academic institutions and small business.

Its business structure is organized in 4 main units: Global Technology Services, Global Business Services, Software, System and Technology and Global Financial. And under each unit, we find complete platforms of tools and solutions. For example, the Software unit includes: DB2, Cognos, SPSS, Lotus, Rational, Tivoli, WebSphere, System z software and more.

About the news, according to the financial results published on January 22, we see the Software unit was the only business that registered growth in revenues. It grew 3.5% for the quarter and 2.0% for the year both compared with a year ago.

But through the comparative 2012-2011 financial results posted the same day, we see that its total revenues of the fourth 2012 quarter were $29.30 billion compared with $29.49 billion from a year ago (-0.6%) and its total revenues of the complete 2012 were $104.51 billion compared with $106.92 billion a year ago (-2.35%).

Ginni Rometty, IBM chairman, president and chief executive officer in the document distributed by the company says: “Our performance in the fourth quarter and for the full year was driven by our strategic growth initiatives -- growth markets, analytics, cloud computing, Smarter Planet solutions -- which support our continued shift to higher-value businesses.” Really, as external analysts we don’t have elements to reject or discuss this statement from who is in charge of the “helm” of IBM since near a year ago. (2013/01/26)


Subject: This article comments on Google’s financial results related to its fourth 2012 quarter.
My Comment: Larry Page, CEO of Google said: “We ended 2012 with a strong quarter” because for the fourth 2012 quarter, the Internet company posted revenues of $14.42 billion from $10.58 billion a year ago, and also the total 2012 revenues were more than $50 billion for the first time in the history of the company.

Additionally, Google posted revenues of $1.5 billion for its new unit of Motorola Home business that includes hardware and other items related the Motorola smart-phones.

Despite the apparent optimism of the Google management for the advance in the integration of the Motorola Home business, till now, it is not clear if the new “hybrid model” will continue working together forever. (2013/01/26)


Subject: This story comments on the IDC report related to the smart-phones sold across the world during the last quarter of the previous year and the complete 2012 year.
My Comment: It is not secret! Today the smart-phone market is heated by a fierce competition. It is like a formula 1 race where the top leaders cannot stop to change tires more than few seconds because the next competitor immediately surpasses the driver who was stopped.

About the Huawei Technology, its third position in the “Top Five Smart-phone Vendors” of the fourth quarter 2012 was a very important “jump” without any doubt. However, this strong advance doesn’t imply the Chinese maker will continue growing at the same pace in the future.

We have to analyze a little the IDC report of the “Top Five Smart-phone Vendors, Shipment and Market Share, Q4 2012 (Units in Millions)” to see all the landscape. (Source: IDC news release for the media,
24 Jan 2013).

Vendor - 4Q12 Unit Shipment:
1. Samsung: 63.7
2. Apple: 47.8
3. Huawei: 10.8
4. Sony: 9.8
5. ZTE: 9.5

Vendor - 4Q12 Market Share
1. Samsung: 29.0%
2. Apple: 21.8%
3. Huawei: 4.9%
4. Sony: 4.5%
5. ZTE: 4.3%

Vendor - Year-over-Year Change
1. Samsung: 76.0%
2. Apple: 29.2%
3. Huawei: 89.5%
4. Sony: 55.6%
5. ZTE: 48.4%

If we look the “Year-over-Year Change” column, definitively, Huawei (+89.5%) was the winner followed by Samsung (+76.0%).

But if we see the “4Q12 Unit Shipment” column, Huawei is the third a long distance from the top leaders Samsung and Apple. Similar situation, when we observe the column “4Q12 Market Share”.

And here is the point: the results of a quarter are similar to the results of a formula 1 race. From there to be the “champion” of the season, you must to have enough “engines” to maintain the leadership across all the year. Till now we don’t know if Huawei have all the elements to continue shortening the difference from two leaders: Samsung and Apple.

Both Samsung and Apple have strong “apparatus” to continue fighting at the top: plentiful resources of marketing, commercial structures and engineering with expertise in the products that they are selling.

Independently of all, the Huawei’s results are a “warning” for Apple. The company co-founded by Steve Jobs has to cover the smart-phone segment with products of all prices from the high-end to the low-end. A month ago, Apple informed that is working on the development of cheap devices.

About Nokia, HTC and Research in Motion, these three players had a very bad 2012 and during the fourth quarter they lost significant market share due to the strong advance of Samsung, Huawei and ZTE.

We have to review the complete Calendar Year 2012 of the smart-phone market to figure out the situation. These are the numbers of IDC of the total 2012 year (Source: IDC news release for the media,
24 Jan 2013):

Vendor - 2012 Unit Shipment:
1. Samsung: 215.8
2. Apple: 135.9
3. Nokia: 35.1
4. HTC: 32.1
5. BlackBerry: 32.5

Vendor - 2012 Market Share:
1. Samsung: 30.3%
2. Apple: 19.1%
3. Nokia: 4.9%
4. HTC: 4.6%
5. BlackBerry: 4.6%

Vendor - Year-over-Year Change:
1. Samsung: 129.1%
2. Apple: 49.6%
3. Nokia: -54.6%
4. HTC: -25.2%
5. BlackBerry: -36.4%

In this ranking we don’t find Huawei, but we see the “tragedy” of Nokia and the “dramas” of Research In Motion (BlackBerry) and HTC.

During the last few days, Nokia made a lot of noise talking about the strong sales of the new Lumia smart-phone based on Windows 8.

From the other side, HTC reported different efforts to recover market and for example, now it is entering into the Myanmar market with a smart-phone customized for the Burman language.

About Research In Motion, this week it introduced the BlackBerry Enterprise Service 10, a new multiplatform enterprise mobility management solution that makes mobility easy for business through a single console for managing BlackBerry, Android and iOS devices and we are waiting more news in next weeks.

In summary, it is early to define “trends”. We have to observe three or more quarters, to see the reactions of Nokia, HTC and BlackBerry and the possible entrance of Apple into the low-end niche. Meanwhile, we have also to follow the feed-back of the buyers of the Huawei devices and see if everybody is happy with the Ascend phones based on Android, the new “flag” of the Chinese maker. (2013/01/25) 2 Recommendations


Subject: This story explains details of the financial results of Apple related to its quarter closed in December 2012.
My Comment: The concerns about the financial results that Apple posted on Wednesday January 23 are the “product” of a sickness of some Wall Street investors who only see the world according to their expectations and they never put their feet in the real world and walk across the consumer technology market.

First point: In its fiscal 2013 first quarter ended
December 29, 2012, Apple posed record quarterly revenue of $54.5 billion and record quarterly net profit of $13.1 billion.

Second point: Its average weekly revenue was $4.2 billion compared to $3.3 billion in the year-ago quarter.

And here something very important, the list of units of products sold during the quarter:

1) iPhones: A record of 47.8 million units in the last quarter, compared to 37 million in the year-ago quarter.

2) iPads: A record of 22.9 million units, compares to 15,4 million in the year-ago quarter.

3) Macs: 4.1 million units, compared to 5.2 million in the year-ago quarter. Observation: We have to recognize the sales of Macs declined compared with a year ago, but the digital tablets didn’t cannibalize the Mac’s business.

4) iPods: 12.7 million units, compared to 15.4 million in the year-ago quarter. Observation: After the first version of iPhone and iPad entered, some observers expected the iPod’s sales will fall to zero).

5) More: from the operations during the quarter, Apple generated over $23 billion in cash flow.

How many technology companies can show similar figures in times of hard competition and economic crisis? (2013/01/25) 2 Recommendations


Subject: This article explains details about the financial results of Samsung Electronics related to its fourth 2012 quarter.
My Comment: Some people don’t like Samsung Electronics because it is a Korean company that always pushes strong “wars” in each market where it competes. The more recent case was the conflict of interests with Apple that generated a series of trials across the world.

However, we cannot categorize Samsung as the “devil” of the technology industry. It has its merits despite that some people who don’t research well believe that all its products are stolen technology.

Every time that a technology company grows a lot, we always research about patents registered in the rankings of US patents about technology and frequently we find surprises. One of the cases was a week ago when we decided to know more about Samsung.

The US Top Ten List of 2012 Patents shows this information:
1. IBM with 6478 patents registered
2. Samsung with 5081 patents registered
3. Canon with 3174 patents registered
4. Sony with 3032 patents registered.

The list continues with: Panasonic, Microsoft, Toshiba, Hon Hai, General Electric and LG Electronics. (Data provided by IFI CLAIMS Patent Services).

For example, Apple is not among the Top Ten List members last year, while Samsung is the second after IBM that always makes a lot of effort in R&D (research and development).

Returning to the Top Ten List: Can a company with 5081 patents registered in one year be categorized a “devil” who steal from others? Definitively, no!

After this short analysis we have to conclude that there is a reason why Samsung remains the largest seller of cell-phones and smart-phones in the world and also with higher margins in its chip business. Congratulations for your 76% fourth-quarter profit (US$6.6 billion) and 18% revenue growths compared with a year ago!  (2013/01/25) 3 Recommendations


Subject: Journalists Chuin-Wei Yap and Paul Mozur say that China’s industry ministry set an aggressive goal of forging global giants in the electronics sector through mergers and alliances.
My Comment: Giants but with “mud feet”!

After a period of low profile growth, it is true that
China is creating electronic giants like Huawei Technologies, Lenovo Group, ZTE Corp and TCL.

These “giants” are taking a similar role that Sony, Panasonic, Toshiba, Sharp and other Japanese electronic giants had 15 years ago.

Also like the Japanese, the Chinese are spreading business relationships across the world with very aggressive marketing programs that hit everybody they find in their way.

But like Sony, Panasonic and the other colossuses from
Japan, they are giants with “hardware feet” because they are primarily “hardware giants” and they are based on software platforms and microelectronics architecture from American companies.

We have to observe that the new Chinese miracle is not 100% Chinese miracle. For example, Lenovo could never achieve its current stature without the IBM ThinkPad technology, the Intel microelectronics and the Microsoft software. Something similar happened in the case of Huawei that originally learned important secrets of the communication business next to 3Com, one the heroes of the networks and communication industry.

In summary, till now the main Chinese giants are companies with “hardware feet” or highly dependent of technologies they don’t have ownership. For these reasons, they can grow a lot but they will continue advancing like giants “with mud feet”.  (2013/01/25)


Subject: This article explains the financial results of the last Microsoft quarter ended in December 2012.
My Comment: In the crucial week of the financial results of the companies that ended a quarter in December, Microsoft posted $6.38 billion net income and $21.5 billion revenues. It declined 3.7% in net income and grew 2.7% in revenue.

We have to remember that Microsoft introduced Windows
8 in October, but despite this factor, its Windows business worked strong during the period.

From the other side, all the companies involve in the PC business have difficulties: Intel, Dell, Acer, AMD and others. Everybody knows that the smart-phones and digital tablets based on different technologies from Windows and x86 microprocessors are taking hard pressure.

Because of these factors, we have to conclude that the financial results of Microsoft were reasonable. (2013/01/25) 1 Recommendation


Subject: This article explains the negative reaction of Wall Street’s investors due to Apple’s figures were under previous expectations. 
My Comment: The punishment of the Nasdaq investors against Apple stock has not surprise us. We see every time that a “star” doesn’t shine well how the people involved with the Wall Street’s world react. The problem will be if this sensitivity degenerates in a sickness. (2013/01/24) 2 Recommendations


Subject: This story comments on details of the financial results of the fourth 2012 quarter of Nokia.
My Comment: Good news! In the last financial results, Nokia posted a net profit of US$269 million. After a series of quarters in red, the comeback to the black figures is a positive step.

However, like its Chief Executive Stephen Elop I think the Finnish phone maker still is “very much in a period of transition”. (2013/01/24) 1 Recommendation


Subject: This story comments on the negative numbers of the financial results of Siemens in the quarter ended in December 2012.
My Comment: I think the fall in profit of Siemens is consequences of a bad management. Its chairman Gerhard Cromme is also chairman in ThyssenKrupp where he is target of shareholder criticism. Today big or small companies, everybody has to manage their operations efficiently. During the last years, with frequency, the accounting of Siemens has showed “strains” and other “things”. By the way, some years ago, top executives of Siemens were involved in a complex case of fund manipulation. (2013/01/23)

        
Subject: This story says AMD, TI and others posted negative figures in their financial results of the quarter ended in December 2012.
My Comment: Really, the problem of AMD is AMD. It is not the soft PC-chip market. This semiconductor maker only for very short periods worked successfully, but if we review its history, we can see that it never found the way to grow continuously. We understand that the competition against Intel is not easy due to the dimension of the leader of the market, but during the last decade AMD had also different management problems. (2013/01/23)


Subject: This story says IBM continues making money with the sales of their software based on Lotus Notes.
My Comment: Lotus Notes was one of the most innovative software platforms of the 1990s and till now its foundation feeds the development a new software solutions based on its tools, data bases and collaborative principles.

Louis V. Gerstner, in that moment IBM chairman and CEO, was very smart when made the decision to acquire of Lotus Development for $3.5 billion. (2013/01/22)


Subject: This story explains the efforts of Microsoft to help Dell in a financial way.
My Comment: Microsoft always had some affinities with Dell, for this reason it is not strange that now it tries to finance a buyout of the computer maker. But this is not the solution to the Dell’s problems. Probably, it will be only a palliative.

As we said in different moments, Michael Dell has to convert the PC maker into a business solutions company. Selling PCs as its main business it will continue vulnerable to the fluctuations of the consumer market and the hard competition from the bargain providers. (2013/01/22)


Subject: This article talks again about the disastrous deal of H-P in the acquisition of Autonomy Corp.
My Comment: The acquisition of Autonomy Corp by HP was a “magic inspiration” of one or more technology executives who live in a “fantasy world” and they believe that all they touch becomes “gold”. I don’t think Leo Apotheker was the only person responsible for this disastrous deal. (2013/01/22) 3 Recommendations


Subject: This story talks about the research regarding the battery malfunctions of the Boeing Dreamliner 787.
My Comment: The battery malfunctions that grounded the Boeing Dreamliner 787 jet created a big problem and now the research goes to the manufacturer of these batteries: GS Yuasa Corp.

GS Yuasa is a Japanese company founded in 1977 with a lot of experience in batteries for sport vehicles. By the way, its motto is: “The fun starts here”. Regrettably the “fun” will not start when an airplane begins to burn.

Ironically, some years ago, a series of Japanese batteries made by Sony created panic when mobile computers from different brands began to burn also from battery problems.

Now we see the important ofbatteries in vehicles and machines and what is risky when its materials are in bad conditions or their interaction with vehicles or machines doesn't work appropriately.

We have to hope this “fun” finishes soon because in this case Boeing and the airplane carriers will be in big trouble. There are a lot of economic factors involved in this issue. (2013/01/22)


Subject: This article comments on the last financial results of the Chinese maker ZTE.
My Comment: ZTE Corp says that “it expects a profit for the first quarter of 2013, thanks to its strategic realignment.” What “strategic realignment” implies for this Chinese company: more bribery for contracts with corrupt governments? 

As it became public, ZTE was banned by the Norwegian telecommunications Telenor for its business practices and in U.S. till now it didn’t pass the “test” of potential provider for Congress or other government institutions for reasons of national security.

According to different sources, ZTE was founded in Shenzhen, China, in 1985 by the government of that country. (2013/01/21) 

Sunday, January 20, 2013

COMMENTS - 2013/01/19




WEEKLY BLOG COMMENTS – No.47
DATES: 2013/01/13– 2013/01/20
ANALYST: Domingo Trassens
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THEME: United States

Subject: The Republicans in the House proposed extending the federal debt limit by three months, changing their previous strategy about the debt ceiling.
My Comment: Sometimes when a storm works against you, you have to take initiatives that you don’t like. From my point of view, the proposal of the House Republican leaders to extend the federal debt limit by three months is only a way to avert a catastrophe for the party in a moment that President Obama is pointing the public against the opposition. (2013/01/19) 1 Recommendation

Subject: With the framework of the Algerian crisis, U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said the U.S. and Europe must work more closely on national-security issues.
My Comment: Cooperation on security is only possible if everybody acts with a responsible attitude and before making crucial decisions, informs the others. According to the information available, it looks like President Hollande sent the French troops to Mali before talking with the other countries and without measuring the possible consequences of his initiative. (2013/01/18) 3 Recommendations

Subject: Treasury secretary Timothy Geithner made his last statement before he leaves the federal government.
My Comment: Before his departure, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner wants to demonstrate that he done a good job. However, a fair judgment about his performance as secretary will not immediate. (2013/01/17)

Subject: President Obama is proposing a new legal package to reduce gun violence.
My Comment: It is great that President Obama cares about the safety of our children, but I think the address of the issue is not the best. Every time that we have a problem, we don't have to rush for new legislation. We have to point against the core of the problem with balance, clear mind and in using all the instruments that our constitution and legal institutions give us. (2013/01/16) 6 Recommendations

Subject: In the last press conference of his first term, President Obama asked Congress for a resolution about the debt ceiling on a hard tone. 
My Comment: After the last events related to the fiscal cliff and the debt limit, I decided to follow the last press conference of President Obama in his first term.

From the beginning of his speech, I felt dizzy. I never expected that President Obama will speak in a hard tone and with anger, like in an address as commander in chief of troops who came from the battlefield without energy to continue in combat.

He said: "We are not a deadbeat nation and the consequences of us not paying our bills...would be disastrous." (Okay, this is correct). But immediately, he added: "We're going to have to come up with answers that set politics aside, and that's what I expect Congress to do…"

Everybody knows that raising the debt limit is a duty of Congress, but from my humble point of view, the chief of the White House can use different tone when he talks to the members of Congress. (2013/01/15) 3 Recommendations

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THEME: Europe

Subject: In United Kingdom, the leader of the opposition Labour Party said the investors will think twice before pumping money into UK due to its uncertain future as a member of the European Union.
My Comment: The relationships between United Kingdom and European Union never were easy. It is good that Labour Party asks for definitions to the rest of the political Establishment after all the disagreements between Prime Minister David Cameron and the authorities of the EU.

From my perspective, the world is going to go in the direction to build strong communities of countries. In front of this movement, the nations that decide to remain alone in the future they will be isolated from the rest of the globe.

Till now, there are a lot of problems when two or three countries try to create an alliance. For example, the founders of the European Union made a lot of mistakes that generated the current crisis of the euro zone, but from our own mistakes the human beings learn.

After a series of bruises, we will arrive at the moment that the Planet Earth will be composed by strong communities with common interests and positive economic achievements. (2013/01/18)

Subject: Militants with possible links to al Qaeda took hostages in the attack to a gas field of Algeria after France sent combat troops to fight alongside the Malian army, seeking to uproot an al Qaeda-linked insurgency in Mali.
My Comment: The story says that “Militants with possible links to al Qaeda seized about 40 foreign hostages, including several Americans, at a natural-gas field in Algeria”. Who is the responsible of this new war? His name is France's President François Hollande.

With his hasty attack to the Malian rebels, Mr. Hollande showed to the world his “ignorance” as political leader and supreme commander-in-chief of the French Armed Forces. His miscalculation will be dramatic not only for the French and the Europeans. It will “stain” all of us.

The former Mayor of Tulle doesn’t look with political experience to solve this “mess” alone. He doesn’t have any clue about the differences between giving orders from the
Élysée Palace and leading the troops on the African ground like a De Gaulle, Rommel or Patton … (2013/01/17)

Subject: The German economy contracted by a larger-than-expected 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2012.
My Comment: The story says that the German economy contracted in the fourth quarter of 2012. When you live surrounded by an environment where everybody sneezes, you sneeze too.

Through the past year the euro-zone crisis shook
Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland. Meanwhile also different countries of the Eastern Europe showed negative symptoms. After that Netherlands, Finland and France reflected difficulties.

Till now,
Germany didn’t catch the strong flu of the others, but if the economic weather doesn’t change, its “defense” will fall because it is gripped by the same currency. The European Central Bank cannot make miracles. (2013/01/15) 

Subject: In Athens, unidentified gunmen fired shots at the offices of the ruling conservative party. There were no injuries and only minor property damage.
My Comment: Today everybody who throws a stone against the office of a politician is categorized as terrorist. But in previous stories from Greece, we saw that a lot of people who act with aggressiveness against the Greek politicians are normal citizens who are angered because they don’t have food to feed their children or fuel to heat their homes. (2013/01/14) 4 Recommendations

Subject:  Serbia adopted a set of guidelines for reconciliation talks with the leaders of Kosovo.
My Comment: If Serbia wants to go forward it has to erase the shadows of the Kosovo war with a pragmatic approach. (2013/01/13)

Subject: France attempted and failed to free a French hostage held in Somalia. One commando member of the operation was killed and another was reported missing.
My Comment: In the war against terrorist groups, the commando operations to rescue hostages have to be perfect. When they fail, normally the terrorists torture and kill the hostages as revenge. (2013/01/13) 1 Recommendation

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THEME: Asia, Middle East & Africa

Subject: The Algerian government informed that its army has secured control of the natural-gas field where hostages were held by Islamist militants for four days. They recognized that some hostages had been killed during the assault but that they didn’t give a precise final account.
My Comment: After some days of big stress, the situation in North Africa looks better since the Algerian troops took control of the natural-gas field where hostages from different countries were held by Islamist militants.

However, till now it is not clear how many hostages are dead and if some of them remain in the hands of the terrorists. From the other side, nobody says what happened with the militants who attacked the complex: How many died? How many escaped? Where are they now the survivors of the assault?

Also there is not more information about the apparently leader of the terrorist attack: Mokhtar Belmokhtar, a 41 old Algerian who learned the arts of the devils on the Afghan ground and after that returned to his country with the intention to extend the Islamist revolution in North Africa.

As we know, the Saharan region is not only the battlefield of the al-Qaida militants. There are a lot of groups of bandits that participate in the terror war and in the traffic of guns and drugs. Meanwhile, the non-open attitude of political regimes like the Algerian led by Abdelaziz Bouteflika - president of this North African country – doesn’t facilitate any solutions.

Under these conditions, I believe that the landscape will remain dark for a long time making more difficult business among the rest of the world and the North African nations. (2013/01/19)

My Comment: In the last few days, all the cables from Africa are really tragic. During the weekend, the French failed in the commando operation to rescue a hostage in Somalia. Now, the Algerian military failed in the rescue of the foreign hostages working in the Amenas gas facility. I don’t believe the Algerians alone will free the hostages that remain alive. (2013/01/17) 2 Recommendations

Subject: U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton asked the Laotian government to investigate the disappearance of a prominent social activist.
My Comment: I don’t believe the Laotian government cares a lot for the pressure of the U.S. Secretary of State about the life and security of the social activist Sombath Somphone. In this kind of regime, the independent minds don’t have a place to live in safety. (2013/01/17)

Subject: The assault of the gas station in Algeria came as revenge of the Islamist militants for the decision of the French government to help Malian government against the rebels of Mali.
My Comment: France's President François Hollande shot his gun against the Islamist militants. Now, a new “Holy War” is beginning. The problem is Mr. Hollande is pushing other western countries and international interests into a dark hole due to his Malian war. Probably, the French President has never read History.  (2013/01/16) 8 Recommendations

Subject: A Somali insurgent group said they have "decided to execute" the French hostage they were holding after an unsuccessful rescue mission.
My Comment: When the commando operations fail, the instinct of cruelty of the criminals increases and normally they take revenge killing or torture the hostages. (2013/01/16) 1 Recommendation

Subject: In the last few days, the problems of air pollution in Beijing generated a lot of concern in the political environment of China.
My Comment: In the old movies about Beijing, we always saw thousands of bicycles across streets and avenues surrounded by small houses.

Today, every time the TV shows pictures from different Chinese cities, we see thousands of cars, huge buildings and factories, and during the night, colorful streets with fast movement of vehicles from each corner of the metropolis.

Definitively, the economic and social changes pushed by a huge industrial growth without good government planning plus the corruption of the authorities are the determinants of the smog waves. No surprise! (2013/01/15) 1 Recommendation

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THEME: Latin America

Subject: In Venezuela, the uncertainty continues about the Hugo Chávez’s succession.
My Comment: Definitively, without Hugo Chávez, Venezuela never will be the same country as before. And Venezuelan Vice President Nicolás Maduro doesn’t have the charisma to be the new leader. (2013/01/16) 

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THEME: Economy, Business and Technology

Subject: General Electric Co posted the financial results of its last 2012 quarter in accordance with previous expectations.
My Comment: On Friday 18, the Wall Street ‘s investors moved Dow Jones Industrial Average up celebrating that General Electric Co in the fourth 2012 quarter posted 7.5% climb of its profit compared with a year ago. Will they continue optimist if the problem of the Dreamliner jets of Boeing doesn’t have a fast solution? (2013/01/19) 

Subject: Goldman Sachs awarded Mr. Blankfein $13.3 million in restricted stock for 2012, according to a securities filing. His is the highest-paid top executive on Wall Street.
My Comment: Lloyd C. Blankfein – chairman and chief executive of Goldman Sachs Group - doesn’t have to worry about his home bills after all the “tips” he has received. (2013/01/19)

Subject: Shares of Intel fell 6% Friday as the semiconductor maker's aggressive 2013 spending plans deepened worries about the near-term profitability of the company.
My Comment: The 14 points that the technology oriented Nasdaq Composite Index dropped on Friday after Intel posted its financial results for the last 2012 quarter and its new spending plans for 2013 shows again the sensitivity of the Wall Street investors to events that are normal in the technology industry.

Everybody knows that 2012 marked a new strategic inflection point in the evolution of consumer technology. During last year the strong advance of the smart-phones and digital tablets hit the PC sales seriously.

Intel was not prepared for the sudden change and now it is suffering the consequences. But this complicated moment of the semiconductor leader doesn’t imply that Intel has not the capability to recover ground. It is positive that it plans new investments for the current year. The pending point is about the Paul Otellini’s succession. The Intel CEO will retire in May and till now it is not clear who will take the “helm” of the company. (2013/01/19) 1 Recommendation

Subject: Intel reported a 27% fall of its fourth-quarter profit compared with a year ago, the latest sign that personal computer demand remains weak.
My Comment: The analysis of this story “Intel Hurt by PC Shift” cannot be made only by reading the figures of the financial results of the fourth 2012 quarter of Intel, where the semiconductor maker marks that the revenue from its PC client group declined 6% from the year-earlier period…

We have to take the time tunnel and drive to the 1990s to understand what is happening now. By the way, in 1996, Andrew S. Grove, at that moment President and CEO of Intel Corporation published a book titled “Only The Paranoid Survive” that applies perfectly to the current moment.

The co-founder of Intel and visionary of the technology industry in that moment wrote: “Sooner or later, something fundamental in your business world will change.” The change “can mean an opportunity to rise to new heights. But it may just as likely signal the beginning of the end.”

Next Mr. Grove said: “Strategic inflection points can be caused by technological change but they are more than technological change. They can be caused by competitors but they are more than just competition. They are full-scale changes in the way business is conducted, so that simply adopting new technology or fighting as you used to may be insufficient.”

When Andy Grove wrote these wise concepts about the “changes” of the technology business, he indirectly made reference to the decline of the classic mainframe computers, during the inflection point of the climb of the PCs based on microprocessors.

Now in 2012-2013, after more than sixteen years of a strong march of the PCs, the smart-phones and digital tablets suddenly produced a new strategic inflection point that is shaking the personal computing business and hitting the manufacturers involved in the production of the base-technology of the PCs: the microprocessors.

In front of this new landscape, Intel, the leader of the chips of personal computers doesn’t find a new way. Ironically, it looks that the current Intel CEO Paul Otellini didn’t pay attention to the prediction that another Intel CEO, Andy Grove made before. As Mr. Grove said, the technology business is very susceptible to “changes” and for this reason, only the paranoid survive… (2013/01/18) 1 Recommendation

Subject:  The Finnish company said it plans a new job cut as part of a move to outsource its information technology operations to Indian suppliers.
My Comment: A week ago, Nokia informed that the sales of Lumia based on Microsoft Windows 8 are going up and its business walks on the right path. Today, again the Finnish company announces that is cutting more jobs and outsourcing its operations with the Indian HCT Technology and TATA. Before that they sold their headquarter offices. What will happen next week, when the CEO has to inform the financial results of the last quarter to the investor? Maybe after that only the name “NOKIA” remains as property of company. (2013/01/17)

Subject: China is losing its competitive edge as a low-cost manufacturing base, according to different sources.
My Comment: The story says that “China is losing its competitive edge as the low-cost manufacturing base.” This is normal. The bargain’s manufacturers always look for cheaper manpower, suppliers and manufacturing lines: And it is possible, they don't pay taxes and work with slavers.

Today, in South Asia, Africa, Caribbean and Central America, a lot of nations with corrupt politicians and populations sink in misery, there are very good places to emulate the beginning of the Chinese industrial miracle. (2013/01/17) 4 Recommendations

Subject: After two battery malfunctions from Boeing's 787 Dreamliner, the Federal Aviation Administration is seeking a corrective action before allowing the grounded aircraft to resume flying.
My Comment: I believe that if everybody is grounding the Boeing Dreamliner fleets, the problem must be very serious. When you are in the sky flying higher, you cannot expect that an angel will protect you in the case of a fire. (2013/01/17)

Subject: Hewlett-Packard has received expressions of interest from potential suitors for its Autonomy business and the EDS unit.
My Comment: This news shows that the management of HP has not a clear idea about the model of company they want.

The acquisition of EDS was an important decision to expand its own services business under the umbrella of “HP Enterprises Services”. Now, it they try to sell the components of this business that belong to the former EDS, they will destroy their own business and they will lose all the effort they made during the last few years to grow in the direction of enterprise services.

About Autonomy, probably it is not a bad idea they sell this package. If they don’t sell it, they have to assume the overprice they paid for this company as a loss and close the case. (2013/01/16)

Subject: Dell Inc has held talks recently about going private, as the PC maker struggles to find a new course for itself following the end of the personal-computer boom.
My Comment: The news says that “Dell holds talks to go private”. And it looks like its founder and CEO, Michael Dell, who owns about 15.7% of the company, is directly involve in the decision to leave Wall Street.

Personally, I don’t believe this step will fix the problems of the computer maker. In 2000, when I was working as analyst and editorial coordinator of Infochannel Latinoamerica, a computer channel publication, I had the opportunity to talk personally with Mike in the Dell World Conference, in
Austin, Texas. In that occasion, I said to Mr. Dell, you made a very good job since 1984 when you founded the company, but the times changed dramatically in the last few years. You have to adopt a business model similar to IBM if you want to continue growing in the right direction: the enterprise computing. Through the consumer PC market, you put out of business other smaller competitors, but through this same road, others will put you out of the business too.

Initially, he understood the idea to focus computer system solutions instead to sell only hardware. In a short time, step by step, Dell was acquiring software and other components of the enterprise solutions like storage systems, communication devices and more. But he never put the PC to the side and the process to enter in the high-profitable technology business was very slow. Recently, in 2009, Dell bought Perot Systems. In that moment, I applauded Mike’s initiative because I thought with the expertise in information services and enterprise solutions of Perot, Dell will achieve the goal.

After all that I am seeing now, I realize that Mike never changed his “PC boy” hat for the “IT solutions apostle”.

In summary, the “PC business” was great 15 years ago, but during the last years like other hardware operations, the assembly of machines became the “cemetery” of thousands or maybe millions of technology pioneers. (2013/01/15)

Subject: Aaron Swartz, the 26-year-old Internet activist hanged himself, about three months before going to jail for a range of felonies, and for allegedly using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's network to download academic-journal articles from a database that charges for access.
My Comment: I agree that when somebody commits a crime has to face up to his guilt. However, the punishment of jail ("possibly more than three decades in prison") for a hacker like Aaron Swartz looks like a wrong penalty for a crime that has to be punished in another way. This shows the Courts frequently really don’t make Justice in the real sense. Probably, in the position of Mr. Swartz, I will take the same fatal decision: kill myself. (2013/01/15) 1 Recommendation

Subject: Apple Inc has cut its orders for components for the iPhone 5 due to weaker-than-expected demand. Apparently, the competition is hitting its smart-phone operations.
My Comment: Apple is a company with a strong background and long experience in the technology arena, but in the war against Samsung, it looks like a Goliath without the flexibility of its Korean rival. (2013/01/14)

Subject: Taiwan's HTC Corp is trying to sell its smart-phones in Myanmar with some innovative features to gain a new market.
My Comment: When somebody opens new markets, it has to conquer its new customers with something that differentiates it from the others. I think the initiative of the Taiwanese maker HTC to develop a new input system for Burmese characters to attract the Myanmar’s buyers could be good. (2013/01/14)